Last week, this blog described part of what Putin has done with his invasion of the Ukraine was using the whole world as a hostage (click here for last week's blog article ). He did that by implying a possible use of nuclear weapons on anyone helping the Ukraine by putting his nuclear forces on high alert.
Last week's article went on to discuss the growing lack of self-restraint that we see in the world today along with the questioning of our government's knowledge of Putin's mental state. I mention all of these things because they should play a role in how the world respond to Putin but seems to be significantly absent.
Fortunately, President Biden has directed aid to the Ukraine without making probable direct confrontations between the U.S. and Russian forces. In fact the same could be said for all NATO forces. But despite the caution exercised, I have fears of a nuclear exchange occurring. And like the old commercial for Lays Potato Chips, my fear is that once nuclear weapons are used, leaders will not be satisfied with just one nuclear exchange. That fear caused me to watch the British version of the American movie The Day After (click here for a brief description ) called Threads (click here for a brief description ). I picked the movie Threads because I could watch it for free. In that movie, what started as a confrontation between Soviet and American forces in Iran over oil led to a limited nuclear exchange and that exchange led to other exchanges until there was a full scale nuclear war.
In any event, despite the wisdom of lowering the probability of direct confrontation between American or even NATO forces with those of Russia, we need to further revise our current approach to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. And the reason for that is precisely because of what was written last week: Putin has made the whole world his hostage. And thus, the world's leaders should include hostage negotiation tactics and strategies in its approach to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. It's not that the world's approach to Putin should be reduced to that of some kind of hostage negotiation. But it is that hostage negotiation approaches should be a major part of how the world's leaders approach him.
Having said that, we should realize that calling Putin a war criminal, though true, doesn't help. It doesn't help because for America to complain about other nations committing war crimes and breaking International Law is like the pot calling the kettle black. For though we Americans like to tell ourselves that we, unlike many other nations, practice the Rule of Law, the fact is that it is the nations with the strongest militaries that try to enforce the Rule of Law on the rest of the world while they themselves practice the Rule of Force. Thus, the hypocrisy of nations like America accusing Putin of war crimes and not abiding by the Rule of Law can only unnecessarily irritate the hostage taker, Putin, and that is not what one should want to do when engaging in hostage negotiations.
If we didn't live in the nuclear age, we could better afford to use our military to stop the Russian invasion even though it still might not be the wisest choice. But we live in the nuclear age. And our top priority right now must be to avoid a nuclear exchange. That doesn't mean that we should sit idly by while a tyrant with imperial dreams dancing in his head has his way with nations that he feels entitled to invade. But it does mean that we need, along with providing support for the Ukraine and some sanctions that target Russia, constant communication between Western leaders and Putin. We need open lines of communication between all of those leaders. We also need to employ the services of leaders of those nations that either continue to choose to business with Russia or those who side with Russia, none of whom want to see a nuclear exchange. It is the leaders of those nations who can provide a reality check for Putin should he be considering using nuclear weapons at all during the invasion of the Ukraine.
Perhaps, the worst approach is to make Putin seem like the target. What Biden said about how Putin should not be the leader of Russia had already been said in the economic sanctions that have been applied against Russia. For it seems that the replacing of Putin as the leader of Russia is a strategic goal at least for Biden. Here we should note that we should not feel safe from a nuclear war because we are employing economic sanctions rather than using military confrontation. Why? WW II, especially its European theater, should provide a sufficient reason not to. That is because wars have started over economic sanctions. Yes, we should use some economic sanctions; but we can go too far with them.
Despite the fact that Putin doesn't deserve to be a leader, he should not be the target of our actions. Rather, the invasion of the Ukraine itself should be. And we need to keep in mind that what we absolutely cannot afford to have is even the possibility of a nuclear exchange over the invasion. Yes, it would be preferable for Putin to get what he deserves. But again, the Rule of Law is applied only to the weak, not the strong. And that is our reality in the nuclear age.
No comments:
Post a Comment